Federal election 2025: I’ll see you, and raise you

The latest polls suggest it was a good week for Labor.

Or was it?

The latest AFR/Freshwater poll this week indicated the ALP would win 71 seats if the election was held today, compared with 66 for the Liberal-National Party (LNP).

The poll indicated a 1 per cent swing back to the ALP on a two-party preferred basis compared with last month.

But Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may have been hoping for a much bigger rebound than this after his solid performance during cyclone Alfred, a better-than-expected showing by Labor in the WA state elections and a week of good, old-fashioned mudslinging over Peter Dutton’s share purchases and ill-timed party fundraiser.

A bigger bounce may have given him more momentum ahead of a difficult week of tariff negotiations, electricity bill hikes and, of course, the Federal Budget.

While the 25 per cent tariff on Australian aluminium and steel imports is a big deal, these metals only represent around $500M in export receipts.

Beef exports to the US make up over $4B in export receipts, while pharmaceutical products make up $1.35B, so upcoming negotiations are a big deal times 10.

Media reports suggest the next round of tariffs might be limited to 10 per cent or less; there seems little prospect of any exemptions if recent machinations are anything to go by.

On electricity bills, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) this week issued its default market offer (DMO) which showed electricity prices are set to rise yet again by some 8-9 per cent, or $200-250, for NSW households from July 1.

According to the AER, the increase this time mainly reflects energy retailers’ own cost inflation and, to a lesser extent, higher upstream costs of generation and distribution.

Not a good look for a government trying to convince everyone it is bringing the cost of living down.

And as we head into budget week, the Prime Minister and his cabinet will be keen to sell their economic management credentials.

On Monday however, Treasurer Jim Chalmers conceded that after two consecutive surpluses, the budget will swing into deficit in the current financial year with economists’ estimates varying from $16B to $25B (or around 1 per cent of GDP).

Deloitte Access Economics are projecting this to double to $49B in 2025-26, or 1.7 per cent of GDP, as the impact of lower commodity prices hits revenues on one side of the ledger and the funding of over $40B in election commitments hits the other.

Well known economist, Chris Richardson, claimed the Albanese government has benefited from an unexpected windfall in revenues of more than $400B since it came to office, driven by bracket creep and record high commodity prices, but that this had been squandered by rampant growth in expenditure with federal budget outlays climbing to over 27 per cent of GDP.

Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor has been very quiet to date by his pugilistic standards – one can only presume that is all set to change next week.

The challenge for Taylor of course is that if the LNP continues to match all of Labor’s election commitments, how will they avoid the same blowout in the budget?

And if cyclone Alfred was the ALP’s golden goose in recent weeks, the CFMEU looks set to be the albatross around its neck in coming weeks.

Damning allegations of corruption and horrifying videos of violence towards women by the union’s officials were aired on Channel Nine’s 60 Minutes program on Sunday, March 16.

The investigation by Channel Nine also accused the Victorian Labor government of failing to act on prior allegations of violence and intimidation by union members on state government worksites.

The CFMEU’s construction division was put into administration in August last year after an earlier media investigation alleged that outlaw motorcycle gangs had infiltrated its branches.

Workplace relations Minister Murray Watt has now referred the allegations to the federal police.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton has also called for the construction workers’ union to be deregistered, for the Australian Building and Construction Commission to be re-established and for US-style racketeering laws to be imposed that would allow criminal charges to be laid against the kingpins of corrupt organisations.

“This is the biggest corruption scandal in our country’s history, because we are talking about billions of dollars, billions of dollars that have been paid by, ultimately, Australian taxpayers,” Dutton said on Monday, as reported by AAP.

Dutton claimed Labor was compromised by having previously accepted donations from the CFMEU and accused the government of turning a blind eye.

And so, the big question for the ALP will be why it took so long, a private media investigation and images of violence against women on prime-time TV before it finally decided to act.

Here on the Coast, the game of political poker continued.

On Friday March 14, Peter Dutton joined local candidate for Robertson Lucy Wicks at Erina to announce the Coalition’s election commitment to invest $112.5M to upgrade Terrigal Drive, essentially to duplicate the single lane road and upgrade the intersections to relieve traffic congestion.

Claims by Dutton that the Labor Government has ignored the Central Coast were quickly countered by Robertson’s Labor MP Gordon Reid, who not only committed to the same upgrades but promised to secure funding for them in the upcoming Federal Budget.

Reid also weighed into the ongoing drama of the Wamberal seawall which was, well … ongoing.

According to the Sydney Morning Herald, Reid opposes the seawall alongside various community groups and local councillor, Corinne Lamont.

The issue is a divisive one however, with the Wamberal Protection Association (WPA) and others supporting private development applications for construction of the seawall which we understand is currently before the State Government.

Stayed tuned and we’ll see you and raise you again next week.

Ross Barry