The issues which will influence our votes

With Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expected to announce a date for this year’s Federal election any day now, Coast Community News will provide ongoing stories on the candidates for local seats and the big issues.

In this first edition of our Election 2025 coverage, we recap the outcome of the 2022 election and current parliamentary make-up, the main candidates for the coming election and the key issues likely to shape voters’ decisions.

The 2022 Federal election saw the Scott Morrison-led Liberal-National Party (LNP) Coalition make way for a new Anthony Albanese-led Labor (ALP) government.

The ALP enjoyed a 3.7% swing on a two-party preferred basis to lift its number of seats in House of Representatives by nine to 77 to form a majority despite a 0.8% slide in its primary vote to just 32.6%.

There have been four by-elections since 2022, resulting in a net gain of one seat to the ALP as well as two recent resignations – Bill Shorten (ALP) and Keith Pitt (Nationals).

Due to a redistribution process one additional seat was created in WA, and two seats were abolished (one in Victoria and one in NSW), so 150 seats will be up for grabs in the 2025 election.

In the Senate, there are 76 seats comprising 12 members from each state and two each from the ACT and Northern Territory.

The Senate is at present effectively controlled by 21 cross-benchers – The Greens is the largest group with 11 members.

Only half of the Senate seats will be up for re-election this year and of these 38 contested seats, only 10 are cross-bench seats, meaning it is very unlikely either of the major parties will be able to win back control of the Upper House.

While history suggests pre-election polls should be considered with great caution, the most recent AFR/Freshwater poll indicates that if the election was held today, the LNP would likely win 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis – that is, after preferences are taken into account.

This implies a national swing of 3.1% back to the Coalition.

Based on granular seat-by seat analysis, however, this would leave both of the major parties with 70-71 seats, a so-called hung parliament.

This would mean not only would the next government rely on cross-benchers to pass legislation, but it is not even clear under this scenario which of the major parties would be in a position to form a minority government.

The AFR/Freshwater poll also suggests that the dominant election issue is the cost of living, with 70% of respondents identifying this as one of their top three issues.

Other major issues are housing (39%), crime (27%), the economy (27%) and healthcare (26%).

Interestingly, climate change, a major focus of the 2022 elections, did not make the top five.

Robertson

The seat of Robertson is widely seen as a bellwether seat, having been won by the party that subsequently formed government in every election since 1983.

In 2022, 11 candidates contested the seat with ALP candidate Dr Gordon Reid winning it with a final majority, after preferences, of 52.3% (primary vote of 37.7%).

This represented a 6.5%% swing to the ALP.

Incumbent Liberal MP Lucy Wicks secured a primary vote of 40.0% (or 47.7% after preferences), while The Greens’ Shelly McGrath secured primary votes of 10.0% with Pauline Hansen’s One Nation Party next at 3.8%.

At this stage, Robertson appears to be another battle between the major parties with both already signalling it is critical to their aspirations to form government.

The LNP would only require a 1.2% swing to win back the seat.

In December, the Liberal Party pre-selected Lucy Wicks, who represented Robertson for three terms prior to 2022, to once again contest the seat.

Sitting Labor MP Dr Gordon Reid will stand again.

Dobell

Seven candidates contested the seat of Dobell in the 2022 election in which sitting MP Emma McBride (ALP), enjoyed a 1.3% swing in her favour to secure the seat for a third term.

McBride won with a final 56.5% majority after preferences (42.9% primary vote).

The LNP suffered a 7% swing against, winning just 33.7% of the primary vote, with The Greens and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party picking up 8.6% and 7.5% respectively.

At this stage, Dobell looks to be a slightly safer ALP seat, with the LNP requiring a 3.3% swing to claim the seat.

Emma McBride will stand again while Brendan Small has been pre-selected by the Liberal Party to contest the seat.

Shortland

In Shortland, which encompasses several suburbs in the north of the Central Coast region, incumbent ALP MP Pat Conroy will once again contest the seat.

The Liberal Party has endorsed Emma King as its candidate.

Elected to the House of Representatives for the seat of Charlton in 2013, Conroy went on to be elected for Shortland in 2016, following an electoral redistribution, and was re-elected in 2019 and again in 2022.

At the 2022 election, he gained a 1.37% swing, snaring 55.8% of the final vote after preferences.

The 2022 Federal election was seen by many to have been fought largely on national issues including the post-COVID healthcare crisis, the housing affordability crisis and Australia’s response to climate change.

The swing against the LNP was widely attributed to a sharp loss of support for sitting Prime Minister Scott Morrison, widely depicted as “missing in action” in his response to the national supply of RATs kits and the 2021-22 bushfires.

Much of the swing away from the LNP went to so-called TEAL candidates in what the ABC described in one post-mortem as a “female, Independent climate revolt”.

While big national (and indeed global) issues such as inflation, a hostile Trump administration, increased trade protectionism and cyber-security again loom large, we can expect voters on the Central Coast to be equally tuned into key local issues including local housing affordability, crime, support for small business, new infrastructure and the renewal of the Gosford CBD.

Coast Community News will keep readers abreast of these issues and what candidates have to say until the election.

Ross Barry
Source for figures: AEC